Massive Cold Wave to Continue Thru Christmas – 90% of CONUS Frozen Solid. Nor’easter On for Sunday
Long-range GFS showing anomalies anywhere from -10 to -20 F below normal from the NE CONUS thru the midwest to Texas.
4.5 day forecast now as we come closer to Sunday Nor’easter. GFS 00z location has major storm
Just for kicks — Christmas morning actual temps from GFS 12z: 90% CONUS frozen solid
POTENTIAL SUNDAY STORM UPDATE: Models this morning are more or less in agreement this morning on a storm forming that will impact our region for the second half of the weekend. Both the ECMWF & GFS are thinking similarly, which is a rare oddity in the forecasting world.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=403842416412835&set=a.232725100191235.56635.232174090246336&type=1&theater
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013
….
BASED ON THIS MODEL CHOICE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY…WITH IT PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCH MARK DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MORE CONFIDENT OF ALL SNOW INLAND THAN AT THE
COAST…WITH THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST TO GO E-ESE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT – USUALLY THIS WILL BRING MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND
NYC AS WELL AS AT LEAST COASTAL SE CT TO ALL RAIN. HOWEVER…THE
FACT THAT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND RE-ENFORCED TO THE
N MEANS THAT IF THE FLOW IS BACKED MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE
TO ISALLOBARIC INFLUENCES – COULD END UP STAYING MAINLY SNOW OVER
COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM SO THIS FORECAST COULD VERY WELL CHANGE. FOR TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY-SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH ECMWF
2-METER TEMPERATURES – FOR NOW ECMWF 2-M TEMPERATURES APPEARED TOO
COLD – SO USED OTHER GUIDANCE TO TEMPER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
BELOW NORMAL BASED ON THE ABOVE THINKING.
IN ADDITION TO THE ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION…IT COULD BE QUITE
WINDY WITH THIS STORM – TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY IF WIND
RELATED HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED – BUT IT IS REASONABLE TO SAY THAT
POSSIBILITY IS WITHIN THE REASONABLE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES…ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS.
http://forecast.weather.gov/
Long-range GFS showing anomalies anywhere from -10 to -20 F below normal from the NE CONUS thru the midwest to Texas.
4.5 day forecast now as we come closer to Sunday Nor’easter. GFS 00z location has major storm
Just for kicks — Christmas morning actual temps from GFS 12z: 90% CONUS frozen solid
@RyanMaue NO RIENDEER Games for florida.. old man out.
— News12WX RichHoffman (@hoffmanrich) December 11, 2013
POTENTIAL SUNDAY STORM UPDATE: Models this morning are more or less in agreement this morning on a storm forming that will impact our region for the second half of the weekend. Both the ECMWF & GFS are thinking similarly, which is a rare oddity in the forecasting world.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=403842416412835&set=a.232725100191235.56635.232174090246336&type=1&theater
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013
….
BASED ON THIS MODEL CHOICE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY…WITH IT PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCH MARK DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MORE CONFIDENT OF ALL SNOW INLAND THAN AT THE
COAST…WITH THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST TO GO E-ESE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT – USUALLY THIS WILL BRING MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND
NYC AS WELL AS AT LEAST COASTAL SE CT TO ALL RAIN. HOWEVER…THE
FACT THAT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND RE-ENFORCED TO THE
N MEANS THAT IF THE FLOW IS BACKED MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE
TO ISALLOBARIC INFLUENCES – COULD END UP STAYING MAINLY SNOW OVER
COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM SO THIS FORECAST COULD VERY WELL CHANGE. FOR TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY-SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH ECMWF
2-METER TEMPERATURES – FOR NOW ECMWF 2-M TEMPERATURES APPEARED TOO
COLD – SO USED OTHER GUIDANCE TO TEMPER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
BELOW NORMAL BASED ON THE ABOVE THINKING.
IN ADDITION TO THE ISSUES WITH PRECIPITATION…IT COULD BE QUITE
WINDY WITH THIS STORM – TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY IF WIND
RELATED HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED – BUT IT IS REASONABLE TO SAY THAT
POSSIBILITY IS WITHIN THE REASONABLE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES…ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS.
http://forecast.weather.gov/