Keep an eye on this.
Has good vorticity at 700mb with heavy convection over the Yucatan.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor3.GIF
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg
Could work its way to the surface and spin up.
Models were advertising this over a week ago.
Stay tuned for updates.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
DB
Has good vorticity at 700mb with heavy convection over the Yucatan.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor3.GIF
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg
Could work its way to the surface and spin up.
Models were advertising this over a week ago.
Stay tuned for updates.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
DB