Gold & A Major Move In One Of The Two Key Global Markets

Gold & A Major Move In One Of The Two Key Global Markets

With oil trading above $105, and the price of gold and silver rallying, today one of the savviest individuals in the business spoke with King World News about gold and his updated chart, the ongoing all-time record buying stampede, and a key move that is happening in one of the most important markets on the planet.  Below is what Jeffrey Saut, Chief Investment Strategist for $360 billion Raymond James, had to say in this powerful interview.

Eric King:  “Jeffrey, you called for the stock market to turn down on July 19th, and so far the stock market has struggled since the 19th.  But until further downside action takes place, I guess we are still technically in this buying stampede.”

Saut:  “Yes, today marks day 141 of this historic and longest buying stampede of my 50 years of notes.  I did target this time frame for the first potential meaningful decline, and by that I mean 10% to 12%.  It was crazy to make such a specific call, but as you know my timing models targeted July 19th as the turning date.”

Eric King:  “If in fact we get some confirmation to the downside, for instance four straight down days on the Dow, this would be one of your most outstanding calls because you will have timed it to the day.”

Saut:  “I think two of the best calls I’ve made in my career, one is credited to Dow Theory which had a sell signal in September of 1999.  Raymond James is the only investment bank or brokerage firm that wrote about that sell signal, and if you listened to that it saved you a lot of money.

“I was then on TV on March 2nd, 2009 saying, “The market bottoms this week.”  I think those are two of the best calls I’ve ever made.  I would just add by the way that I’ve made some bad calls (laughter ensues).  But I am focused on the overall markets because if you do get this 10% or 12% hit, I think it’s going to be across the board, and I also think there are going to be select stocks that are going to go down a lot more than 10% or 12%.

I would add that if we do get this hit I think it will be for buying.  Right now I think this earnings season is going to disappoint and this is one of the main reasons I believe the market is susceptible to a significant downturn here.”

Saut went on to talk about the gold chart he sent to KWN last week, and even provided an updated one (see chart below):  “Again, what I think what is significant about this gold chart is that when the market is trending in either direction it keeps you in the trade.

You can clearly see that in this chart you were kept long of gold from the $800 area in 2008, and then exited the trade at around the $1,700 level.  After some choppy trading, gold then turned decisively lower and gold has remained on this sell signal.”

Eric King:  “Jeffrey, as you know Richard Russell talks about the ‘50% principle’ quite a bit.  So I went and looked at the decline in gold from $1,920, to $1,180.  That’s a $740 decline.  If we chop that number in half it’s $370.  If we then add that number to the lows we come up with $1,550 for gold as the 50% retracement number.  Will that $1,550 area be a key for gold in the event we see gold continue to rally?”

Saut:  “The 50% principle has a lot of validity to it.  I’ve studied it over the years, and as I said it definitely has some validity to it.  So, yes, I will be watching the $1,550 area on gold.  But remember the 50% principle is just one metric we look at.
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