The marriage rate is at its lowest point in more than a century, and
the number of marriages across the USA fell more than 5% during the
recession. But a new analysis projects that pent-up demand and the large
population of marriage-eligible Millennials, ages 18-34, means more
will be headed to the altar over the next two years.
Cultural changes about whether and when to marry, the fact that two-thirds of first marriages are preceded by cohabitation and the recession's financial fallout — including unemployment and underemployment — fueled the wedding decline. Projections from the private company Demographic Intelligence of Charlottesville, Va., says the signs are right for a temporary boost in weddings.
The company projects a 4% increase in the number of weddings since 2009, reaching 2.168 million this year; 2.189 million in 2014. Depending on the economic recovery, the report projects a continuing increase to 2.208 million in 2015.
Although it finds marriage numbers are stagnant or declining among those with a high school education or less, younger Americans, and the less affluent, numbers are rising among women ages 25-34, the college-educated and the affluent, which is where "short-term increases in weddings will be concentrated," says this analysis, released exclusively to USA TODAY. It's based on a variety of measures, including unemployment and consumer confidence, which reflect the relationship between financial security and the transition to marriage.
"Declines in weddings are likely to set in towards the end of the decade, even though the number of young adults is increasing, because of the nation's ongoing retreat from marriage," the report notes.
Experts in the field say this projection appears on target.
"Given the drop in marriage rates, it's surprising to see a group project an increase," says sociologist Andrew Cherlin, director of the Hopkins Population Center at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. "But it makes sense.
"If you're going to get married in time to have kids, you can't wait forever, so they may be saying that the postponement of marriages is running its course, and a backlog of young adults is about to schedule their weddings," he says.
From 2007 to 2009, the number of marriages each year fell from 2.197 million to 2.080 million. The report estimates that more than 175,000 weddings have been postponed or foregone since the recession began.
Read More: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/06/17/marriage-trends-demographics/2424641/
Cultural changes about whether and when to marry, the fact that two-thirds of first marriages are preceded by cohabitation and the recession's financial fallout — including unemployment and underemployment — fueled the wedding decline. Projections from the private company Demographic Intelligence of Charlottesville, Va., says the signs are right for a temporary boost in weddings.
The company projects a 4% increase in the number of weddings since 2009, reaching 2.168 million this year; 2.189 million in 2014. Depending on the economic recovery, the report projects a continuing increase to 2.208 million in 2015.
Although it finds marriage numbers are stagnant or declining among those with a high school education or less, younger Americans, and the less affluent, numbers are rising among women ages 25-34, the college-educated and the affluent, which is where "short-term increases in weddings will be concentrated," says this analysis, released exclusively to USA TODAY. It's based on a variety of measures, including unemployment and consumer confidence, which reflect the relationship between financial security and the transition to marriage.
"Declines in weddings are likely to set in towards the end of the decade, even though the number of young adults is increasing, because of the nation's ongoing retreat from marriage," the report notes.
Experts in the field say this projection appears on target.
"Given the drop in marriage rates, it's surprising to see a group project an increase," says sociologist Andrew Cherlin, director of the Hopkins Population Center at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. "But it makes sense.
"If you're going to get married in time to have kids, you can't wait forever, so they may be saying that the postponement of marriages is running its course, and a backlog of young adults is about to schedule their weddings," he says.
From 2007 to 2009, the number of marriages each year fell from 2.197 million to 2.080 million. The report estimates that more than 175,000 weddings have been postponed or foregone since the recession began.
Read More: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/06/17/marriage-trends-demographics/2424641/