American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) is a true old age behemoth of investing. The company is one of Warren Buffett’s favorites and is one if the Dow 30. However, how does the company stack up to its newer rivals – Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and Mastercard Inc (NYSE:MA)
One of the main draws of investing in a
company like American Express is the fact that the company can run
itself. There is no need for complicated management decisions like
industrial companies or basic material companies. In addition, both Visa
and MasterCard have the same kind of business and they could
effectively both run themselves.
American
Express has one major difference between Visa and MasterCard. American
Express lends money to customers and derives the vast majority of its
income from customer interest on credit card loans. Both Visa and
MasterCard only offer a payment network, skimming revenue off of each
transaction and neither of them has any loan exposure or potential
customer default risk.
So, who presents a better investment opportunity right now based on Warren Buffett’s investing criteria?
Buffett’s Berkshire already owns all
three of these card providers, but what about the average Foolish
investor who does not have as much cash as Buffett and was not savvy
enough to open a position in American Express all those years ago?
So the criteria I will be reviewing the companies on are:
1. Value
– A basic ratio comparison of each firm. It’s well-known that Buffett
likes to buy stocks that are going cheap and undervalued vs. their
peers. This will help put together a quick overview.
2. Company Performance For Investors - What is the ROE for each firm and who is generating the best and continually improving return on equity for equity holders.
3. Cash Flow And Profitability
– A good free cash flow can be the key for future shareholder returns. A
decent cash flow usually stems from a decent profit margin.
4. Debt And Balance Sheet Strength – does the company have and debt? Can it repay/service interest on current debts?
5. Do The Company’s Products Rely On A Commodity? – Companies that have products based on commodities do not have pricing power, therefore margins can become unpredictable.
6. Is The Stock Selling At A 25% Discount To Its Real Value – The deal clincher for Buffett, even if all of the other points are positive, if the stock is not a buy.
1. Value
American Express | Visa | MasterCard | Group Average | |
Forward P/E ratio | 12.4 | 18.2 | 19.5 | 16.7 |
Price to Sales (TTM) | 1.9 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 7.4 |
Price to Book (MRQ) | 3.3 | 3.7 | 9 | 5.3 |
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) | 5 | 30.6 | 24.5 | 20 |
American Express is obviously the
slowest grower of the group with the lowest forward earnings multiple.
This low multiple for AXP however, brings down the group average making
the other two look expensive. On a price to sales basis American Express
exhibits the same trend with the lowest ratio in the group and the
group average significantly above the multiple placed on AXP. The price
to book ratio is low again for American express whilst it is high for
MasterCard. Free cash flow is a fundament that Buffett finds the most
important, with AXP trading at the lowest multiple to its free cash flow
I believe Buffett would still American Express as the most undervalued
stock in the group.
2. Company Performance for Investors.
Return on Equity,
is a measurement of how quickly a firm has improved shareholder funds
over the period and is a decent measurement of how shareholders can
expect the company to perform in the future increasing the shareholder
capital base.
Over the past five years, the best
and most consistent shareholder return has been from American Express.
Both Visa and MasterCard have been able to increase shareholder return
on average; however, there has been significantly more volatility in the
ROE over time. This could be an indication that American Express will
continue to sustain a constant level of just under 30% return on
shareholder equity over the next few years. This presents a much better
prospective investment than the erratic Visa and MasterCard.
3. Cash Flow and Profitability
Operating Margin | Profit Margin | |
MasterCard | 42% | 30.5% |
Visa | 21% | 20% |
American Express | 28.5% | 15.1% |
In this section American Express does
start to fall down. Visa and MasterCard both produce significantly
larger margins than American Express. There are two main reasons for
this;
1. AXP has significant financial
liability and exposure to consumer loans, forcing the company to have a
provision for bad loans:
In Q3 2012 AXP made a provision for financial losses of just under
$500 million, or 7% of total Q3 revenue. However, if we look back to Q1
2009, AXP provisioned for losses of about $1,500 million, or 31% of
total Q1 2009 revenue.
2.
AXP has a significantly smaller exposure to highly lucrative card transaction network.
Q3 Total Cards (Millions) | Q3 Total Transactions (Millions) | Q3 Gross Dollar volume (Billions) | ||
Worldwide | US | |||
Visa | 2032 | 20,532 | $487 | $521 |
MasterCard | 1859 | 8679 | $628 | $290 |
American Express | 101.4 | - | $146.9 | $73.2 |
The winner of this round has to be MasterCard, with Visa coming in second.
4. Debt and Balance Sheet Strength
American Express | MasterCard | Visa | |
Total Assets | 152.9B | 9B | 40B |
Cash & Short Term Investments | 26.4B | 6.5B | 7.25B |
Inventories | 0B | 0B | 0B |
Total Liabilities | 133.4B | 5.2B | 12.4B |
Long-Term Debt | 56.3B | 0B | 0B |
ST Debt & Current Portion LT Debt | 4B | 0B | 0B |
Current Ratio | - | 2 | 1.5 |
Quick Ratio | - | 2 | 1.5 |
Risk-Based Capital Tier 1 | 12.7% | - | - |
Reviewing the companies under this
critera does prove to be a struggle, while MasterCard and Visa have a
solid balance sheets and no debt, American Express does have debt and,
due to its lending division it only has a capital ratio of 12.7%. This
makes American Express significantly less appealing than its
competitors, who currently have no debt and large cash balances.
This round once again goes to
MasterCard, with fewer liabilities and a higher portion of Cash and
short term investments compared to its total asset pool.
5. Do the company’s products rely on a commodity?
In this case none of the companies products rely on commodity.
6. Is The Stock Selling At A 25% Discount To Its Real Value?
This is the deal maker. Unfortunately
there is no definitive method to calculate Buffett’s perception of a
discount to real value. If there was then his style would be very easy
to replicate.
There is one way of working out a guess however that is through the Graham Number.
Company | P/B | P/E | EPS | Book Value Per Share | Graham Value | Current Discount/Premium To Graham Value |
AXP | 3.3 | 12.1 | $4.73 | $17.4 | $57 | -5% |
V | 3.7 | 18.2 | $8.36 | $41 | $87 | -71% |
MA | 9 | 19.5 | $25.5 | $55.7 | $176 | -175% |
Currently none of the candidates offer a
significant ‘value’ opportunity. In fact both Visa and MasterCard
present a significant prospective downside in the view of the Graham
value.
Conclusion
Currently, none of the candidates
present a value buying opportunity, however, American Express still
seems to be the most undervalued stock of the group. Currently the stock
provides a decent discount to its two peers, a constant, predictable
return on shareholder equity and has a current price that is closest to
becoming undervalued compared to its Graham value. On the other hand
American Express does generate the lowest free cash flow and operating
margin in the group as well as having the worst looking balance sheet.
Despite these negative factors, I
believe American Express still presents a decent investment opportunity
over both MasterCard and Visa, this is based on its historic shareholder
equity returns and possibility of maintain these returns over future
years providing a more sustainable return for shareholders.
The article Buffett, American Express, Visa and MasterCard originally appeared on Fool.com.
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Article Source: Insidermonkey